Though divided on the wisdom of opposing Mukherjee, the opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may still put up a fight. This will be a crucial decision for the NDA given the current unpopularity of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the NDA’s desire to keep its allies together with an eye on the 2014 parliamentary poll.
Mukherjee seeks India’s presidency at a time when the task of reviving Asia’s third-largest economy is far from complete. In the last few months the country has been battered by policy gridlock, inflation and sluggish investment. After robust growth that saw the country weather the 2007–8 global slowdown, growth has skidded to a nine-year low of 5.3 per cent.
Criticism from investors and financial institutions about the pace of economic reform and opening up to global competition has marred Mukherjee’s reputation, which he established in four decades as a minister and seven annual budgets. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who reportedly disagrees with Mukherjee’s approach may assume the role of finance minister temporarily. Singh has held this office before, during India’s 1991 crisis, initiating reforms that unleashed two decades of faster growth.
The announcement that Mukherjee will run for president could be seen as a boost for the UPA-II government, which has been embroiled in scams and is accused of political mismanagement; but, ironically, his departure also weakens it, as he cannot be easily replaced.
As the government’s principal trouble-shooter, Mukherjee chairs 25 Groups of Ministers (GOMs) and Empowered GOMs. This is an arrangement that has been in vogue for a decade now. The GOMs allow the Cabinet to get an in-depth assessment before taking decision. The EGOMs substitute the Cabinet and decide on most economic, political and security matters, with the Cabinet giving the final, formal nod. This is an ad hoc arrangement, depending upon issues involved. As Mukherjee steps down from his role as minister, the task of heading GOMs and EGOMs will have to be divided.
While never a mass leader, Mukherjee has been a political firefighter. A persuasive negotiator, he is well respected in Indian politics — enough to be called ‘dada’, or elder brother, by his supporters.
Of course Mukherjee is not dada to all, and one person who hasn’t referred to him in this way in years is Mamata Banerjee, chief minister of his home state of West Bengal. Angry at Mukherjee for not sanctioning a bailout that works out to an equivalent of US$2894 million, to be disbursed over three years, she has campaigned vociferously against him. Although a UPA constituent, her party may oppose Mukherjee, defying son-of-the-soil sentiment, or abstain, and thus retain a foothold in the alliance. Mamata’s desperate attempts led her to propose, among others, her communist foe Somnath Chatterjee and even Manmohan Singh as alternative candidates.
Aside from Mamata’s machinations, Tamil Nadu’s Jayalalithaa Jayaram has sponsored former lower house Speaker P. A. Sangma for presidency. If he decides to run, the pitch for a Garo tribal from northeastern India — the first Christian (he is a Roman Catholic) to run for the post — may work, but only marginally.
Jayalalithaa’s efforts, as well as those of the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to get former president A. P. J. Abdul Kalam, have failed. Kalam on Monday formally said he will never aspire to the office again and was not willing to join the contest.
With an anti-government mood in the air, the run-up to today’s elections has been acrimonious. More significantly, the national parties, Congress and BJP have been virtually sidelined as regional satraps push their agendas and candidates. These winners of recent state-level elections are flexing their muscles, to the chagrin of the bigger parties.
Unlike in better times, this election will also be ‘expensive’. The government may have to concede huge financial packages worth billions to allies and opponents alike. The good news for investors, both domestic and foreign, might be that with Mamata’s bluff called, Manmohan may accelerate pro-market reforms that she has stalled.
India’s presidency is largely a ceremonial position, but it holds the political key. The presence of Mukherjee, a politician with long-term experience in economic management, should help in these troubled times.
After Mukherjee concluded one of his early speeches in Parliament, then prime minister Indira Gandhi told an aide, ‘India’s shortest finance minister has delivered the longest speech’. She would be happy to see UPA chief and daughter-in-law Sonia Gandhi place similar trust in Mukherjee, who could very well be making the move, after four decades, from North Block, the finance ministry, to Rashtrapati Bhavan, the presidential abode.
Mahendra Ved is a New Delhi-based writer and columnist.
A version of this article was first published here in the New Straits Times.