BN (Barisan Nasional or National Front), which has been in power for more than 50 years, cannot afford to lose to PR (Pakatan Rakyat or People’s Pact). Interim Prime Minister Najib Razak has been warned by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad that should he fail to win big — that is, with a two-thirds majority — Najib must step down. Furthermore, if BN wins, the chances of PR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim becoming prime minister in the next election are slim. Anwar has admitted that should he fail to win he would quit politics.
The fact that Najib waited so long to dissolve the parliament shows his lack of confidence in winning the election. Ever since taking over power in 2009, Najib has handed out cash assistance to Malaysians of all walks of life in an attempt to win support. His two big plans to ‘transform’ Malaysia — the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) and Government Transformation Programme (GTP) — have earned him praise and criticism. As much as BN wants to cling to power, PR is racing to deny the ruling party any chance of retaking Putrajaya.
BN enters the election with a lot of political baggage. It has been marred by corruption, abuse of power and inefficiency. The NFC (National Feedlot Corporation) scandal, for instance, exposed the weaknesses in the government’s financial management. The Auditor-General’s report on the mismanagement of public funds is one of the many examples of entrenched inefficiency in the BN administration. BN has been beset by complacency, and critics argue it has been slow in addressing the issues raised in the report. At the same time, BN is proud of its economic achievement through the various ‘transformational’ programs, at the expense of a widening national deficit. While Najib is commended for his pragmatism, many people seem to have very little faith in his calls for reform.
The PR too is not without its fair share of problems. In recent times it can be criticised for focusing on increasing Anwar’s popularity at the expense of effective policy-making, which the country is in dire need of. Two of the component parties in PR — PAS (Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party) and DAP (Democratic Action Party) — are at loggerheads over the Islamic ‘hudud’ law and use of the word ‘Allah’. For PAS, implementation of the hudud law is a must, as the party is formed based on Islamic ideals. On the Allah issue, PAS says that the word can only be used by Muslims. DAP, a secular party with a sizeable number of Christian members, disagrees on both issues.
In the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak, PR is yet to form a formidable force. In Sabah, PR is quarrelling with local-based opposition parties over seats allocation, which will give an advantage to BN to retain the state. In Sarawak, PR is struggling to win support among the indigenous people who have been supporting BN for a generation. BN has cultivated a culture of dependency among the indigenous people through developmental aid, and PR will face an indomitable challenge in breaking this dependency.
Despite their apparent weaknesses, BN and PR have their own strengths which are vital in determining voters’ preferences come polling day on 5 May.
BN has a track record in developing the country’s economy. It has reduced poverty commendably well. BN has also been successful in managing one of the most ethnically and religiously diverse countries in the world. After the 13 May 1969 racial riots, Malaysia has not seen any racial conflicts of the same scale.
More than half of the points contained in PR’s election manifesto are about political, social and economic reforms. While it is not easy to undertake a sweeping reform in Malaysia, the agenda has attracted many young, educated and urban voters. PR’s aim to establish a people-oriented and friendly government has also attracted many fans — young and old.
PR seems to be leading the race, according to survey findings by the University of Malaya’s Centre for Democracy and Elections. In the survey, 43 per cent of the respondents said that Anwar was qualified to be prime minister compared to 39 per cent for Najib. Forty-two per cent of the respondents also said that they were attracted to PR’s manifesto, ahead of 36 per cent for BN. Najib was quick to dismiss the survey’s findings, stating that BN’s own survey indicates BN is in the lead. Furthermore, the poll did not question voters in the key states of Sabah and Sarawak.
The contest is still open. BN or PR could win — now, it is up to the voters to decide.
Dr Arnold Puyok is Senior Lecturer in political science and international relations at the Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.
I could not agree more that the upcoming election is the mother of all elections. I believe it is beyond racial based politics. This election, people will witness dynamic of democracies, where Malaysian starts to view the overarching policy put forward by competing parties in their manifesto. This also supplanted by pervasive use of social media in political campaign, particularly by the fractious opposition.They come out with among others interesting parody video, cynical pictures and caricature of candidates. We could not see all these creative political marketing in the previous election. Such campaign has somehow strong influence to the first time voters and the young ones which constitute more than 40per cent of the total eligible voters. While patronage politics is a strong factor for Barisan Nasional but one could not dismiss the strong wind of change among young voters.
The dream of any government elected after fifth of May would be bleak because votes tend to be split. Of course any government that could not secure strong majority is deemed to be weak government. But weak does not mean bad. It is the weak that will work hard rather a strong government. When government could not command strong majority, they will tend to be relevant representative of the people. The struggle is not based on self-interest but rather attempt to be more accountable to the people. Policy formation will be more transparent and relevant to the country and ensure robust socio-economic growth. Thus the spirit of struggle is not just mere physical development, but also people’s value and interest of a greater public. The government will carefully listen to the people demand and no more act of complacency to meet the need of the people. For instance like the former government (current caretaker government) Barisan Nasional is deemed weak government, and for that Prime Minister Najib has introduce unprecedented bonanza to the people, for instance one and a half month bonus to civil servant, the bravura BR1M, reaching the younger generation, and lot more. All this effort is to ensure there are relevant to every segment of the society (Najib really work hard despite all the political clamouring). Apart from that, Sabahan voices are being heard too. This is obvious when Sabahan elected representatives are appointed key federal position. Sabah also received greater fund for development. Certainly you will not see this during Mahathir or Badawi tenure. Hence, weak government will likely to perform better and really walk the talk.
According to Harakah, which is the official party news source (http://bm.harakah.net.my/index.php/headline/15774-kalimah-allah-islam-benarkan-tapi-jangan-salah-guna#.UYQtFrVHITs), PAS does not deny non-Muslims using the word ‘Allah”. The hudud law is not in the PR manifesto – it is not even an election issue. The author has given BN too much credit while PR too little credit. BN, mostly through Najib, has been using promises of development and money allocation to convince voters while PR has been appealing for changing of the status quo.