In the last decade, Cambodian economic performance has been relatively high with an average of annual GDP growth of about 7 per cent. The poverty rate has been reduced from 22.9 per cent in 2009 to 20 per cent in 2012 and could further drop to 19 per cent in 2013. However, due to weak governance and corruption, the benefits from economic growth have not been evenly shared.
The upcoming fifth parliamentary elections on 28 July will be another significant step in Cambodia’s democratic transition, with more than 9 million eligible to cast their votes. Eight political parties will run in the elections, but there are two key candidates: the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CCP) and the opposition party, Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP).
Elections in Cambodia are often dynamic with strong public expectations and demands for reform and improvement of the public institutions. Since the official start of the election campaign on 27 June, political parties have actively introduced their policies and promises to the voters. Meanwhile, there have been reports of political intimidation, which is not uncommon in Cambodia’s modern political history. Policy debates generally lack substance, since political parties tend to focus on short-term goals and interests rather than a long-term vision for Cambodia’s sustainable development.
The upcoming election differs from previous ones, due to a relatively peaceful environment, the increasing interest and active participation of Cambodian youths, and the proliferation of social media. Importantly, Cambodians are increasingly pushing for electoral reforms and more transparency in the electoral process. There are demands for the reform of the National Election Committee, particularly in relation to alleged irregularities concerning the voting list and inequality among the various political parties in getting access to media. There are more than 250 reported cases of election law violations, political intimidation and disturbances.
The two main political parties are focusing on very different policy agendas.
The CPP is focusing on peace, stability and economic development. It is emphasising its achievements in peace building and national reconciliation, political stability, public order, infrastructure development, high economic performance, poverty reduction and increasing its presence on the international stage. Moreover, the CPP has promised to deepen comprehensive reforms in all sectors from security to economic and educational reforms.
The CNRP campaign, on the other hand, is prioritising household economic policies such as the promises to increase the incomes and livelihood of factory workers, farmers, police, the armed forces, civil servants, and the elderly. The CNRP is also concentrating on eradicating corruption; increasing employment opportunities for the youth; providing free healthcare for the poor; eliminating land grabbing, forced eviction and illegal logging; reducing the prices of energy and fertilizers; and lowering interest rates.
In terms of the foreign policy debate, both parties are emphasising neutrality and non-alliance. The CPP is focusing on the principles of peaceful co-existence and international cooperation especially within the ASEAN framework. Cambodia continues to promote a multipolar world international system and order and pursue strategic diversification.
The CPP will most likely win the elections with an absolute majority due to its financial resources and long-standing relationship with the public especially in the rural areas. However, the CNRP is gaining more ground in challenging and contesting the CPP’s dominant standing in parliament. If the political and economic reforms do not deliver satisfactory results as promised during the election campaigns, the CPP may risk losing its predominant role in the future.
The international community and civil society organisations are closely following the upcoming election to ensure that they are administered freely and fairly. If the election is not conducted in a free and fair manner in accordance with standard rules and procedures, the results will likely be contested and the legitimacy of the incumbent’s rule may come into question. It is therefore necessary for all political parties to put national interests ahead of their own self-interest and comply with the rules. Cambodia’s democratic transition cannot proceed without the support and participation of all political parties and factions.
The new government needs to deepen its public administrative reforms with concrete development policies based on the principles of inclusiveness and sustainability. To realise its vision of becoming a middle-income country by 2030, the new government will need to foster strong and responsive public institutions, a resilient private sector, and an engaged civil society. Partnerships between public, private and civil society need to be strengthened in order to secure a strong foundation for Cambodia’s sustainable development.
The outcome of the election, if administered freely and fairly, will undoubtedly contribute to peace, stability and continued development in Cambodia. The CPP is likely to remain in power, but the CPP needs to seriously and continuously implement political, social and economic reforms in order to maintain credibility and support from the public. Good governance, anti-corruption, environmental protection, rights-based development and inclusive growth are key issues that must be addressed and concretely implemented at all levels.
Vannarith Chheang is a Senior Fellow at the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace.