So where did the increased ballots come from and where did they go to? And what does this mean for the Legislative Council elections later this year?

There are three possible explanations. One is that both the government and the opposition were able to mobilise voters in numbers that effectively neutralised each other’s gains. Another explanation points to the importance of so-called ‘fake’ voters. That is, people registering to vote with addresses that were not their own or, in some cases, did not exist.

But perhaps a more significant explanation is the role played by first-time voters and particularly young voters. Nearly a quarter of the 260,000 newly registered voters were aged 18–20, the largest of any voting cohort. According to the Registration and Electoral Office, 35 per cent of all voters were aged between 21 and 30. This is significant as this group is generally considered more likely to vote for non-traditional parties or first time candidates than any other age group. One might expect that young voters would be more likely to elect candidates associated with the Umbrella Movement.

First time candidates, and those aged under 35, were certainly successful in the election. For example, 12 of the 43 seats won by the Democratic Party — the biggest player in the pro-democracy front — went to first-time candidates. Altogether, nine seats went to the so-called ‘umbrella soldiers’, activists who ran on the movement’s momentum. Less obvious, but of greater significance was the fact that radical parties do not appear to have benefited from the Umbrella Movement. The League of Social Democrats, People Power and Civic Passion all failed to grasp a single seat and their support at the ballot box shrunk by a combined total of almost 60 per cent.

This is no coincidence. Hong Kong domestic confidence in Beijing’s promise to uphold the principle of ‘one country, two systems’ has been shattered. But, at the same time, many voters are frustrated at the confrontational tactics employed by radical parties and are not convinced that they will be effective in securing greater autonomy from Beijing. Umbrella soldier candidates appear to offer an alternative option. While they are less inclined toward insurgency-style political tactics, compared to radical parties like the League of Social Democrats, they still support a nativist ideology that emphasises greater autonomy for Hong Kong.

So will these umbrella soldiers develop into a third force in Hong Kong’s democratisation?

Greater active involvement by the public in the election, including campaigns run by ordinary citizens, is a progressive sign of civic consciousness. Groups associated with the Umbrella Movement are now shaping up to contest the February Legislative Council elections. In theory, the 70,000 votes they garnered this time could reward them at least one or two seats.

But supporters should not be too optimistic. Legislative constituencies are at least 25 times larger than those at the district level and so present a much more daunting task for new candidates. And, compared to the traditional political parties, the umbrella soldiers are loosely organised and lack resources.

The biggest challenge is coordination. Unlike district councils, which are run by plurality voting, seats in the legislature are elected via proportional representation. This means that political blocs that are able to coordinate votes between multiple candidates — as opposed to one candidate receiving well above the required number of votes — are able to gain more seats. To gain a meaningful proportion of seats in the legislature, the umbrella soldiers would then need to coordinate with other like-minded parties. But the extent to which they can collaborate with other pro-democracy political parties is questionable.

The upcoming Legislative Council by-election in February is in this sense a test of the opposition’s unity. If they can coordinate well, emerging political parties may help broaden the support base for pro-democracy parties. If not, they might further intensify competition within the opposition bloc, potentially undermining its electoral prospects.

Steven Yet is a PhD student in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto.