The destruction from TC Winston spanned livestock, crops, forestry, infrastructure, houses and other buildings. According to the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO), 3360 houses were destroyed and 5846 were partly damaged. Tragically, 43 lives were lost.
The response by the Fijian government was swift, declaring a State of Natural Disaster for 30 days following the cyclone. This was later extended until 19 April to allow the emergency and relief effort to continue. Two days after the cyclone, the government also established bank accounts to receive financial donations and called for ‘additional resources to urgently address the needs of affected Fijians and assist with the rebuilding process’.
The Fijian government has received significant support from the international community. Within two days of the declaration of a State of Natural Disaster an Australian C-17A Globemaster III arrived in Fiji with personnel and equipment. Australia also led the donor assistance with a total contribution of FJ$53 million (US$25.6 million). New Zealand sent a C-130 Hercules with 12 tonnes of relief supplies, while China has provided a total of FJ$15.2 million (US$ 7.3 million) worth of cash and relief items. The European Union has also committed more than FJ$47 million (US$22.7 million) to the recovery of the agriculture and sugar sectors over the next four years.
The Fijian government has implemented several financial support schemes to help with the reconstruction. Members of Fiji National Provident Fund — Fiji’s only superannuation fund — were allowed to withdraw between FJ$1000 (US$484) and FJ$5000 (US$2424) from their accounts to assist those affected. So far over FJ$250 million (US$121 million) has been paid out. An additional FJ$20 million (US$9.7 million) was paid to current social welfare recipients on top of the normal monthly payments. But there have been serious allegations that some of these funds may have been misused for purposes other than reconstruction.
Another major scheme involves a FJ$70 million (US$33.9 million) ‘Help for Homes’ initiative to provide financial assistance for homeowners to rebuild their homes. Only households whose annual income falls under FJ$50,000 (US$24,236) a year will qualify for this initiative. Having learnt from the ‘misuse’ of pension fund withdrawals, the government has now introduced a pre-paid electronic card and a pin number for purchasing building materials. A False Information Bill has also been hurriedly passed by parliament this week to avoid any other misuse of funds.
The longer-term impact of Cyclone TC Winston on the Fijian economy will be significant, with the economic growth forecast for 2016 already revised downward from 3.7 per cent to 2.2 per cent. The agricultural sector will feel this downturn the most as it is already reeling from persistent dry weather spells since 2014. Sugarcane and sugar production, in particular, will see a significant decline. Around 51 per cent of all employment in the agriculture sector is at a subsistence level. This means that not only has the cyclone destroyed many farmers’ livelihoods but it may have also seriously impacted their ability to adequately feed themselves and their families.
Health and nutrition risks following Cyclone TC Winston pose additional challenges to the reconstruction process. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) 18,000 people have required psychosocial support to deal with the traumatic experience of TC Winston.
One positive for the Fijian economy is the continuing growth of the tourism sector. Visitor arrivals for March 2016 have increased by 9.7 per cent compared to same period last year and it is expected that the pre-TC Winston forecasts of visitor arrivals and tourism earnings are unlikely to change.
Despite the best efforts of international donors, financing for medium- to long-term rehabilitation will remain a challenge. Prior to TC Winston, the government was already in a tight fiscal space. Just last year it was restructuring the payoff methods for a US$250 million debt of which US$200 million remains. Most of the planned asset sales that were factored into revenue projections remain unsold. Now the government is tapping into a US$50 million borrowing facility that was approved by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank back in 2014.
An overarching concern for the reconstruction effort is maintaining democratic governance. Involvement by the opposition and civil society will be crucial to ensure that the reconstruction process is politically, financially and administratively accountable.
The opposition has already called for bipartisanship at the parliamentary level through a joint parliamentary task force to oversee rehabilitation in specific areas such as rebuilding homes, schools and the sugar industry. It seems that a genuine partnership for policymaking may emerge in TC Winston’s wake.
Neelesh Gounder is Senior Lecturer in economics at the University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji.