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Russia’s ‘turn to the East’

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Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a meeting at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence in Sochi, Russia, 6 May 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

In Brief

At the beginning of September, Vladivostok hosted the second Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), the showcase for Russia’s ‘turn to the East’ policy. Russia’s leadership describes the economic and political pivot to Asia as the country’s foreign policy priority in the 21st century.

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The 2016 EEF gathered representatives from 56 countries, with the biggest delegations from Japan (with 246 participants), China and South Korea. There were also sizeable delegations from Western countries, including the United States, Germany and France, as well as business and political representatives from Southeast Asia. Russia also held transnational business dialogues with China, Japan, Germany, South Korea and ASEAN.

The major step forward from last year was the participation of foreign leaders. Plenary session participants included Russian President Vladimir Putin, Korean President Park Geun-hye, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd serving as moderator.

Last year, following the EEF, Putin went to Beijing to participate in China’s Victory Day parade. As a result, the main message from the 2015 EEF was the rapidly developing relationship between Russia and China. But the main theme this year was undoubtedly the intensification of Russia–Japan economic ties. The personal chemistry between Putin and Abe, as well as Abe’s willingness to distance Japan from the US policy of isolating Russia, has led to a positive dynamic of high-level bilateral contacts in recent months. This trend is encapsulated in Abe’s proposal for a ‘new approach’ to relations between the two countries.

As usual, much of the discussion centred on cooperation in the energy sphere. Proposals included a US$400 million investment by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation in the Arctic LNG project, which would provide Japan with LNG via the Northern Sea Route. There were also discussions of the so-called energy ring, a proposal to connect the electricity grids of northeast Asia, including an interconnector to export electricity from Russia’s Sakhalin to Japan’s Hokkaido.

Despite these wide-ranging discussions, the EEF generally featured more declarations of intentions than concrete economic agreements between Russia and Japan. In order to actually implement economic cooperation, Abe has proposed that leaders of both countries meet annually in Vladivostok. Japan has also appointed a minister to oversee economic cooperation with Russia and, after the summit, Russia announced that it would create a counterpart role. These developments indicate that the 2016 EEF is just the start of a new trend in Russia–Japan relations.

While the focus of this year’s EEF was on Japan, there was still significant participation from China. Although the country’s senior leaders were absent — including the heads of the Chinese provinces bordering eastern Russia — a large number of less senior figures still attended and emphasised the new Russia–China agricultural fund. Zhenwei He, Deputy Secretary General of the China Overseas Development Association noted that the vast lands of Russia’s eastern territories hold great potential for agricultural development with the help of Chinese investment.

The two countries will hold a second round of talks in October on an economic cooperation agreement between China and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). If successful, such a deal would mark a major success in linking together the Russia-backed EAEU with China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative.

As for Russian–Korean ties, President Park Geun-hye highlighted the potential to increase and diversify commodity turnover between the two countries. She also expressed willingness to discuss a possible free trade agreement with the EAEU. This may actually be achievable because, unlike Japan, Korea did not impose sanctions on Russia following the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. Another promising idea raised by Park was intensifying bilateral science and technology cooperation to boost both countries’ international competitiveness.

Park Sang-jin, president of Samsung Electronics, emphasised that Vladivostok is ‘where President Park’s Eurasian Initiative and Russia’s “turn to the East” policy meet’. He also noted that while Samsung Electronics primarily has investments in central Russia, it is looking to increase cooperation with the Russian region bordering the Korean peninsula.

The European track at the EEF was also important. The Russian–German business dialogue highlighted the two countries’ traditionally strong economic ties, and a panel discussion on ‘the development of economic partnership from Lisbon to Vladivostok’ reminded the audience of Putin’s comparable proposal from the last decade. Antonio Fallico, chairman of Banca Intesa, stated that European involvement in projects like the EAEU and China’s OBOR may prove even more profitable than the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership currently under negotiation. But despite this positive language, it seems that a significant breakthrough in EU–EAEU relations is still not feasible under the current sanctions regime.

The overall question of whether the annual EEF is just window dressing or will actually lead to substantive results remains unanswered. But with its strong emphasis on Russia–Japan relations and the participation of two foreign leaders, the 2016 EEF undoubtedly gave a symbolic boost to Russia’s ‘turn to the East’.

Andrei Kozinets is an Assistant Professor of international relations at Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU), Vladivostok. James D. J. Brown is an Associate Professor of political science at Temple University, Japan Campus.

4 responses to “Russia’s ‘turn to the East’”

  1. Will Japan remove its sanctions on Russia and risk disappointing the USA? Wil Russia adopt a more flexible stance in regards to what Japan calls the Northern Territories?

    We shall see if these changes are in the offing.

    • It is indeed a strange situation that Japan should have sanctions against Russia and simultaneously be pursuing a major increase in economic relations. Despite the contradiction, there seems little prospect of Japan ending its sanctions any time soon since it has committed to upholding the G7 position on Ukraine. Japan’s sanctions are also largely symbolic and place few legal obstacles in the way of closer Japan-Russia economic cooperation.

      • Thanks, James, for the clarification.

        So, will Putin be willing to ignore largely symbolic sanctions in exchange for economic cooperation with Japan? Will he require that Abe drop the sanctions in exchange for one or two islands of the Northern Territories?

        Is Putin going to remove Russians living on these islands for decades now in order to get a deal with Abe?

        • Dear Richard,
          it is worth to note that Southern Kuril islands are almost non inhabited. The population there is not exceeding few hundreds of people.If there is a real deal concerning the islands we may expect the migration of population to the Sakhalin island for example to be realistic (especially, if we imagine some financial and logistical assistance from Tokyo in this regard)

          However, this is really a minor question. The bigger one – is how high a real confidence of both sides to each other? I guess that step-by-step warming of bilateral ties in middle- or long-term perspective may lead to political breakthrough.

          Nevertheless, without actual economic substance it is difficult to expect anyting really significant in political relations. Therefore, I consider Putin and Abe to be on the right course.The discussion held during the Economic Forum shows that both sides understand that new economic projects can sail around current sanctions regime (which is more sybolic than real).

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