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North Korea’s missile shower cements Japan’s defence strategy

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US Vice President Mike Pence inspects PAC-3 missile interceptors with Japan's Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera at the Defense Ministry in Tokyo, Japan, 7 February 2018 (Photo: Reuters/Toru Hanai).

In Brief

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated in January 2018 that ‘North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and missiles represents an unprecedentedly grave and urgent threat’ to Japan. Indeed, Japan’s North Korea policy has hardened amid an uptick in North Korean missile testing.

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North Korea simultaneously launched three ballistic missiles in September 2016, all of which landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. This was followed by the launch of two ballistic missiles that flew over Japanese territory in 2017. The 2017 Defense of Japan Annual White Paper states that North Korea may have ‘achieved the miniaturisation of nuclear weapons’ and the acquisition of nuclear warheads — both of which have Japan in their firing range.

Japan joined the international community in adopting the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2397 in December 2017 — a resolution that levelled further sanctions against the DPRK and imposed asset freezes on North Korean armed forces and banking officials. It was enacted in response to North Korea’s continued nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono announced that such tests were in violation of a series of relevant UN Security Council resolutions and the Japan–DPRK Pyongyang Declaration. He went on to say that they were against the spirit of the Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks.

Japan’s latest actions come as no surprise. They only enhance political pressure on Pyongyang. Japan has not initiated a new dialogue with North Korea, despite the ostensibly peaceful atmosphere between North and South Korea over the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. It has cautiously watched North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, which have long since overstepped Tokyo’s ‘red lines’.

Japan has been threatened by the hundreds of Nodong-1 medium-range missiles that have been developed by North Korea over the past quarter century. But the threat posed by such rockets has taken on a ‘new level’ of threat according to the White Paper. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that it was ‘purely a matter of good fortune that no commercial aircraft or ships suffered any damage’ when North Korea launched three missiles over Japan in 2016.

There is also the outstanding issue of the North Korean abduction of Japanese citizens during the period 1977–83. According to the Japanese government, 17 of its citizens were kidnapped and taken to North Korea. Five of the original abductees were returned to Japan in 2002 after former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi visited North Korea for the first Japan–North Korea Summit. North Korea only admits to having kidnapped 13 Japanese citizens and claims that the remainder never entered its territory.

A spokesperson for the North Korean Foreign Ministry’s Japan Research Institution announced on 20 January 2018 that the issue had already been resolved. This is not Japan’s official position: Japan demands either the return of its kidnapped citizens or evidence that they are not alive.

Since Japan signed the Pyongyang Declaration in 2002, Japan has sought to resolve the North Korean abduction, missile and nuclear issues comprehensively. Prime Minister Abe reiterated his will to tackle the abduction issue at the 196th Diet Session in 2018 and met with the returned abductees and their families on 25 January 2018.

As for the actual defensive measures Tokyo has taken to deal with North Korea, Japan maintains its existing two-step missile defence, which consists of Patriot surface-to-air missiles and warships equipped with ballistic missile defence systems. In order to obtain new defence capabilities, Japan procured two additional Aegis Ashore ground-based missile defence systems and long-distance cruise missiles to protect its naval fleet against North Korean missile threats.

These measures are only part of a larger security policy: Japan is working to more comprehensively update its National Defense Program Guideline by the end of 2018. And although Japan has taken military and diplomatic steps of its own to address the North Korean threat, its alliance with the United States continues to be an essential pillar of its foreign and security strategy.

Despite the hardening of Japan’s approach to North Korea, ‘regime change’ or a collapse of the DPRK is not Japan’s ultimate policy goal. Foreign Minister Taro Kono stated at the UN Security Council that Japan has never promoted regime change in other countries and that a peaceful solution is the most desirable option.

He also reiterated that a comprehensive resolution of the ‘abduction’ issue and North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile bellicosity is the only way to maintain international peace and security as set out by the United Nations. Likewise, North Korea will only be able to enjoy a brighter future by resolving those issues. But so long as North Korea maintains an offensive strategic posture by testing intercontinental ballistic missiles and so long as a compromise between Japan and North Korea remains out of reach over the ‘abduction issue’, Japan’s North Korea policy is unlikely to change.

Dr Hiroyasu Akutsu is a Senior Fellow at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies.

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