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Hong Kong protests in the Mainland eye

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People stand in front of the smashed glass door of Hong Kong Design Institute during a demonstration in Tiu Keng Leng in Hong Kong, 17 October 2019. (Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad).

In Brief

As Hong Kong’s protests continue and become more violent, observers are wondering how it will end. Will Hong Kong’s leaders be able to quell the protests through negotiation? If they don’t, Beijing has made it clear that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will step in. The director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office Zhang Xiaoming has called the turmoil in Hong Kong a ‘colour revolution’.

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There has been much ink spilled on what an intervention from Beijing might look like, particularly revolving around whether People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces would be deployed on the streets of Hong Kong. Speculation is rife among observers of Beijing’s politics because little is known about how decisions are made and who is instrumental in shaping them. Chinese media is the most reliable source for understanding leadership attitudes, CCP priorities and the framing of policy problems. But too little attention has been paid to Chinese media coverage of events in Hong Kong and its impact on public opinion on the mainland.

Mainland knowledge of Hong Kong’s political unrest is surprisingly limited. Very few people, including local government officials and teachers, have even heard of the extradition bill. Even those who have heard about an extradition bill seem unaware that it was a proximate cause of the Hong Kong unrest and that frustration over the one country–two systems model had been building for some time. International media has made similar observations on mainland opinions about Hong Kong.

A commonly held view on the mainland is that Hong Kong protestors are fomenting a colour revolution with the support of foreign ‘black hands’. Mainlanders are incredulous that Hong Kongers are taking to the streets in protest. Such sentiment is reminiscent of mainstream public opinion during the Tibetan protests of 2008, when most Chinese citizens were equally ignorant of Tibetan grievances toward Beijing’s policies.

Such views are shaped by state-monopoly media that casts opponents as ungrateful beneficiaries of the CCP’s pro-growth and pro-stability agenda. Just like ethnic Tibetans a decade ago, Hong Kong protestors are being cast as criminals and terrorists in cahoots with foreign devils and determined to weaken the motherland by agitating for independence. This automatically makes them anti-China, as party and nation are inseparable in CCP rhetoric.

Painting protestors in this way justifies the use of force, as Tibetans, Chinese Muslims and other disaffected constituencies have learned the hard way. Media portrayals of protestors as enemies of the state backed by foreign ‘black hands’ also rallies public support for the use of force should Beijing determine it is needed. Due to the media’s one-sided and heavily edited portrayal of events in Hong Kong, alongside tight online censorship of alternative views, there is every possibility that the public has moved ahead of policymakers. Many Chinese citizens have already decided it is time for Beijing to sort out Hong Kong.

There is a risk that overly biased and unnuanced coverage of the political problems in Hong Kong have painted Chinese President Xi Jinping into a corner. If the protests and violence continue and Xi does not respond with a firm hand, he will be perceived as weak. Xi has invested much in his strongman identity — the helmsmen for a ‘new era’ that China needs to achieve its goal of great national rejuvenation. Xi and the party are increasingly sensitive to public opinion, which is why so much is invested in manipulating it.

If Xi sends troops into Hong Kong, he risks a major setback to the more important goal of reuniting Taiwan with the mainland. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, whose Democratic Progressive Party leans towards independence, has already been quick to warn about the lessons of Hong Kong for the one country–two systems model — the same model that Beijing proposes for Taiwan’s reunification. The PLA in Hong Kong would effectively spell the end of one country–two systems.

No wonder Chinese leaders are scared, as Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam apparently claimed in remarks leaked from a meeting with Hong Kong business elites in early September 2019. Beijing’s inaction to date suggests leaders are waiting to see if the protests will fizzle out. But if protests continue, the political pressure on Xi to do something will mount.

Developments in Hong Kong have ramifications for the region and the world. But despite global interest, and recent appeals by some protestors to American lawmakers, the political problem can only be solved by political leaders in Beijing and Hong Kong. China’s media may be dangerously constraining policy options, but international responses are likely to be counterproductive. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, passed 15 October by the US Congress and guaranteed to soon pass the Senate, carries little more than symbolic value, and has been denounced by Chinese media as ‘arrogant and dangerous’. Alongside daily news in China of the trade war — similarly presented as an effort to prevent China’s rightful return to global superpower status — US intrigue in Hong Kong is an easy story to sell. Any perceptions of interference could place peaceful solutions even further out of reach.

Ben Hillman is Director of the Policy and Governance Program at the Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

One response to “Hong Kong protests in the Mainland eye”

  1. I know the Hong Kong protests are being reported on CGTN and assume similar coverage in Chinese language media. CGTN coverage seems perfectly balanced to me; it’s the Western media that seems biased, to the extent of legitimising violent protests. I am not a mainland Chinese, but from Malaysia. So this is a non-Western, overseas Chinese and hopefully impartial perspective.

    Anyway, I suggest the author at least be open to the possibility that his own prior views ought to be scrutinised.

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