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Behind the Democratic Progressive Party’s convincing 2020 win

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An election official shows a ballot with vote for Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen as votes are counted at a polling station in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, 11 January 2020, (Photo: Reuters/ Ann Wang).

In Brief

On 11 January 2020, incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a record-high number of votes and the majority of seats in Taiwan’s general election.

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Tsai’s comeback is surprising given that just over a year ago, only 15 per cent of the public supported her bid for a second term. Many see the victory as a clear and firm rejection of Beijing’s growing efforts to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s reunification rhetoric, coupled with Hong Kong’s anti-extradition protests and violent police crackdowns, certainly helped boost support for Tsai’s DPP. But this is only half the story. Other reasons for Tsai’s success include a lack of trust in the Kuomintang’s (KMT) capacity to handle cross-Strait relations, improving economic conditions, increasing support from younger voters and a new ‘sense of urgency’ in light of the events in Hong Kong.

When it comes to relations with the mainland, the KMT does not have the public’s support. Tsai’s open and firm refusal of Xi’s ‘one country, two systems’ proposal has earned her a reputation as a protector of Taiwan’s sovereignty. But while Tsai fends off China’s threats, the KMT continues to promote the ‘1992 consensus’, which many see as an out-dated response to the reunification question.

According to a China Impact Studies survey conducted in March 2019, national security is valued more than economics in cross-Strait exchanges. While the public is becoming increasingly concerned about the ‘China factor’, DPP initiatives such as the New Southbound Policy help to ease anxiety over economic overreliance on China.

As Tsai scrambled to find ways to safeguard Taiwan’s economy last November, the KMT decided to place several controversial pro-unification figures on the top of their legislative party list nomination. Such blunders helped to restore voter confidence in the DPP.

Taiwan’s economy also performed well during Tsai’s first term. During elections, people often retrospectively examine previous economic circumstances and compare them with their present. Taiwan is no exception. In the past three years, Taiwan has maintained a stable growth rate, achieved record stock market highs, maintained the lowest unemployment rate in two decades and started to move away from stagnated real wages.

These successes are mainly driven by export-oriented sectors benefitting from US–China trade friction and a global reshuffle of supply chains. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that Taiwan is gaining the most from the ‘trade diversion effects’, as manufacturers and investors move to locations less affected by the tariffs. Though economic issues — such as high housing prices and long working hours — still exist, on balance Taiwan’s economy is improving. This put the DPP in a favourable position in the lead-up to the election.

Support from a younger generation of voters was responsible for the huge vote gap between the DPP and the KMT. Some argue that that the DPP is evoking a ‘sense of urgency of losing Taiwan’s sovereignty’ to mobilise this cohort. This is only partly true. Taiwan’s younger generations deeply care about liberal values. Their voice helped pass the historic same-sex marriage bill in May 2019. Support for marriage equality and gender-equality education was also a significant factor in Tsai’s victory.

As the DPP tried to cater to youth public opinion, the KMT sought to do the opposite. The KMT vows to reverse the marriage equality bill and many KMT candidates criticise sex education at schools. These acts only weakened youth support for the KMT.

Like the DPP, the KMT attempted to mobilise voters on the basis of a different ‘sense of urgency’. KMT politicians argued that activists seeking Taiwan’s independence would jeopardise Taiwan’s national security because such movements often propose to change the country’s official name — from the Republic of China to the Republic of Taiwan, for example — or to establish a new constitution. For many KMT supporters hoping someday for reunification, the Republic of China still encompasses the mainland.

There are also some misunderstandings about what DPP supporters consider a ‘sense of urgency’. Many people in Taiwan worry they will lose freedom and their way of life. But these are concerns not necessarily related to a loss of sovereignty or territory. In recent years, China has coerced foreign governments and private companies into accepting China’s official policies. In practice, many companies have decided to kowtow to Beijing and claim that Taiwan is part of China. As the Chinese style of self-censorship spreads around the world, many young citizens in Taiwan grow fearful of losing their freedoms.

Xi Jinping’s push for unification, protests in Hong Kong, the DPP’s promotion of liberal values, the ‘sense of urgency’ among a younger generation in Taiwan and an opposition party that is increasingly alienated from the public all contributed to Tsai’s victory. The vicissitudes of politics are often hard to predict — even Tsai may not have seen them coming, especially given the state of her re-election prospects one year ago.

Fang-Yu Chen is a PhD candidate in political science at Michigan State University.

Austin Wang is Assistant Professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Charles K S Wu is a PhD candidate in political science at Purdue University, Indiana.

Yao-Yuan Yeh is Assistant Professor of international studies and Assistant Coordinator of the Taiwan and East Asia Studies Program in the Center for International Studies at the University of St Thomas, Houston.

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