Among the five parties that are now represented in the Legislative Yuan, two have entered parliament for the first time. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) gained five seats through the proportional representation system and the Taiwan Statebuilding Party (TSP) defeated the KMT incumbent in a Taichung City constituency and obtained its first ever mandate.

In contrast, the previously third-placed New Power Party (NPP) lost two of its seats in parliament despite making gains in the overall vote share. The People First Party (PFP), led by the once-influential presidential candidate James Soong, conceded significant losses and will not be represented in the next Legislative Yuan.

While these appear to be minor gains, the minor parties are likely to play a bigger role in the future of Taiwanese party politics. Issues of sovereignty and diplomatic recognition will continue to posit the main cleavage among voters. Confrontation with the Beijing government is likely to grow in the future over the issue of Hong Kong protestors seeking refuge in Taiwan and potential further losses of diplomatic allies. For the DPP, this will likely lead to the loss of some ‘deep green’ voters that see Tsai as too moderate.

The TSP and NPP seem to have attracted some deep green voters already. This is remarkable since the NPP faced a near-existential crisis due to internal splits, and yet it managed to attract voters that were disappointed with the DPP. These two parties in particular will add further ‘green’ pressure to Tsai’s government to make progress on the issue of sovereignty and participation in international organisations.

But recent polls on Taiwan independence suggest that the overwhelming majority of Taiwanese people still prefer to maintain the status quo. This means that the TPP poses an even bigger challenge for both the DPP and the KMT. The TPP seeks to present itself as alternative to both the Pan-Green and Pan-Blue camps. Growing partisan dealignment, or weaker personal identification with any political party, poses challenges to the ‘traditional’ main parties.

The DPP’s defeat in the 2018 local elections and several poll results suggest that a large share of the population were dissatisfied with the DPP’s record in government. While some of the DPP’s reforms were seen as too progressive (or not progressive enough for young voters) such as the legalisation of same-sex marriage, other reforms were poorly administered such as the pension reforms.

In this environment, the TPP has resonated with the voters by presenting itself as an alternative. Founded by Taipei’s Mayor Ko Wen-je in August 2019, the party has already gained 11 per cent of the party list vote and some observers say that Ko’s candidacy could have also impacted the presidential contest. While many continue to place confidence in the TPP’s future, its quick rise inevitably reminds many of the now-defeated Soong and his PFP in the 1990s to early 2000s.

Soong and his PFP enjoyed great popularity in the past. After a near miss in the 2000 presidential race and the party’s success in the 2001 parliamentary elections, Soong and the PFP seemed to be on the verge of establishing themselves as a credible third-force alternative. But after spending years swaying back and forth between the green–blue divide, Soong failed to extricate both himself and his party from the influenceof the KMT. They failed to attract Pan-Green voters and also lost many Pan-Blue supporters due to ‘green tendencies’ in the later years.

Whether the TPP and Ko Wen-je himself, who started off ‘green’ under the support of the DPP, can retain a neutral stance in the chronic green–blue struggle and offer a compelling manifesto presenting themselves as a genuine ‘third-force’ will be vital to their long-term success. Regarding the fundamental question of regime status in Taiwan, the TPP may sooner or later have to clarify its ambiguous attitudes on cross-strait relations. Several of Ko’s seemingly ‘pro-Beijing’ speeches as well as close ties with prominent KMT member Terry Gou have already startled many of his originally green-leaning supporters.

The PFP’s weak results in legislative and presidential elections go hand in hand since the party relied primarily on Soong’s previous popularity. The party was already on the verge of losing its relevance after Soong announced his retirement from politics in 2006. A similar party crisis is now likely.

A lesson Ko and the TPP should learn from the PFP’s dependence on its leader is to build a more comprehensive platform rather than simply rely on Ko’s personal appeal. The TPP’s future success will largely depend on the institutionalisation of the party.

Chuyao Zeng is an MSc candidate at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS).

Felix Wiebrecht is a PhD candidate at the Department of Government and Public Administration, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK).