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Indonesia’s opportunistic approach to arms procurement

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Indonesian Navy's KRI Singa-651 leaves the Tanjung Wangi port as the search continues for the missing KRI Nanggala-402 submarine in Banyuwangi, East Java Province Indonesia, 24 April 2021. (REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana)

In Brief

The first-ever bilateral defence agreement between Indonesia and Japan was signed on 30 March 2021, which paves the way for Japanese arms exports to Indonesia, including the potential sale of up to eight Mogami-class frigates. The agreement focuses on maritime security with ‘shared serious concerns about the continued and strengthened unilateral attempts to change the status quo’ in the East and South China Seas.

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Indonesia has expressed concerns over maritime disputes in the South China Sea, which suggests that the agreement forms part of an Indonesian reaction to China’s aggressive tactics. Indonesia has implicitly recognised that ‘countering China’ underpinned its other defence agreements entered into in the last five years, including with India and Australia. The agreement with Japan indicates yet another Indonesian effort to build maritime defences against China. Just like the previous agreements, however, concerns over China might not be the only driver.

The agreement is a game-changer for Japan because it is portends to the first arms sale of this scale after relaxing its constitutional interpretation regarding arms exports in 2014. The agreement is not the first case of Japanese arms sales to Indonesia. In 1960, Japan transferred a landing-ship tank and a submarine tender to the Indonesian Navy that remain in active service.

For Indonesia, the agreement signifies its pragmatic and even opportunistic arms procurement. The agreement envisages the transfer of ‘defence equipment and technology to implement projects … contributing to international peace and security; joint research; development and production projects; or for enhancing security and defence cooperation’. The agreement is similar to what Indonesia’s traditional arms suppliers already offer. Potential Japanese arms exports are unlikely to significantly alter Indonesia’s eclectic approach to arms acquisition.

The agreement is better seen in the context of Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto’s recent track record of pitting potential arms suppliers against each other in search of the best deal. Prabowo’s tactics are not novel in Indonesia’s procurement history, as is evident in Indonesia’s procurement of new fighter aircraft.

Prabowo appears to be vacillating between Russia, France, Austria and the United States as the potential supplier for new fighter aircraft. Yet there is a certain logic behind this approach. Prabowo possibly expected his overtures to Russia to elicit a sympathetic invitation from the United States and France to offer a better deal. Meanwhile, his dealings with the United States and other Western partners might induce Russia to bid for a contract on other weapon systems.

Bolstered by his plan to spend over US$125 billion on arms procurement by 2044, Prabowo might expect the defence agreement with Japan to encourage Indonesia’s other arms suppliers to offer more competitive deals, including technological transfer to support Indonesia’s arms industry. Currently, Indonesia’s Ministry of Defence is selecting the follow-on to the two Dutch-designed Martadinata-class frigates, the most sophisticated addition to Indonesia’s fleet. Prabowo might also use the defence agreement to press the Dutch for better terms if they wish to see the procurement of more Martadinata-class frigates.

The defence agreement with Japan could even prompt Prabowo to induce South Korea into offering better terms for the additional acquisition of Type-209 Nagapasa-class submarines. The recent sinking of Indonesia’s Nanggala-402 submarine — refurbished in South Korea in 2012 — has put Indonesian naval procurement and technological transfer from South Korea under scrutiny. If not for the subs, perhaps better terms could be negotiated with South Korea for the sale of KF-X/IF-X 4.5 generation fighter aircraft.

On 10 June 2021, Indonesia signed a contract to purchase six Bergamini­-class and two ex-Maestrale-class frigates from Italy. In addition to the Italian Bergamini, Indonesia has been eyeing the Danish ‘Iver Huitfeld’ and British ‘Arrowhead 140’ design from Babcock International.

Guiding this approach is the belief that Indonesia can opportunistically turn to one supplier country against another wherever the deal appears sweeter. The sale of Mogami-class frigates will confirm the addition of Japan to Indonesia’s present list of arms suppliers.

Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto is an Indonesian Presidential PhD Scholar in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University.

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