With New Zealand parliamentary elections held every three years, what was predictable was that an election would be held before the end of 2023. What was unexpected was that the governing Labour Party’s leader, Jacinda Ardern — in power since October 2017, victorious at two successive general elections — would not be leading the party in a quest for a third electoral mandate.
Echoing her predecessor, the National Party’s John Key, Ardern announced to the media in January that she would be stepping down, observing that she had ‘nothing left in the tank’, the same language used by Key in December 2016 when he likewise surprised the country with a decision to leave office. While Key was able to bestow office on his Minister of Finance, Bill English, a capacity to transfer popularity and a gift for ‘connecting’ with ‘ordinary New Zealanders’ was beyond his powers.
Ardern’s departure was followed by the Labour Party’s parliamentary caucus electing (unopposed) Chris Hipkins, taking office on 25 January 2023. Offering a mix of continuity and change, Hipkins was unable to replicate Ardern’s impact, his tenure undermined by a succession of mishaps among cabinet colleagues, four ministers gone over a few months and a fifth chastised by Parliament’s Privileges Committee for displaying a ‘high degree of negligence’. The impression was of a wayward government, collapsing from within.
Intractable issues — including rising crime, increases in food and fuel prices and an ongoing housing crisis — attracted considerable attention from the media and the political opposition but few solutions. Opinion polls kept voters informed of a steady decline in Labour’s standing, making a change of government seem inevitable.
Labour’s loss of support was disclosed with stark clarity at the 14 October elections. From its 2020 peak of 65 seats — a parliamentary majority, the first achieved by any party since the proportional system was introduced at the 1996 election — the party declined to 34 seats, its share of the vote dropping from 50 per cent to 26.9 per cent — a massive vote of no-confidence. An electorate with multiple grievances, unimpressed by unfulfilled promises, gave the government a fairly comprehensive comeuppance. Conceding defeat on election night, Hipkins retained his seat and leadership of the party.
The National Party’s electoral performance was unimpressive, winning only 38 per cent of the vote. English, in defeat, won 44.5 per cent of the vote in 2017. Key won 45 per cent of the vote in 2008, 47 per cent in 2011 and 47 per cent in 2014. Labour’s fall from grace made National’s recovery from 2020 (25.6 per cent of the vote) sufficient, allowing Christopher Luxon to emerge as the country’s third prime minister in 11 months, taking office on 27 November.
The National Party’s 2023 promise of ‘strong and stable government’ — intended as a campaign contrast to the spectre of a Labour–Greens–Maori Party ‘coalition of chaos’ — seemed elusive as the year drew to a close. National’s weak parliamentary position, reliant on support from New Zealand First and the right-wing ACT Party, made post-election government formation arrangements less than straightforward, lengthy negotiations to assemble a three-party government delaying the presumptive prime minister’s taking office.
The final result produced separate policy documents between National and each coalition partner, including ‘agree to disagree’ provisions as well as a commitment to ‘the principles of liberal democracy’ and ‘parliamentary sovereignty’. Luxon’s cabinet comprised 14 National ministers as well as three ministers each from ACT and New Zealand First. The deputy prime minister position was rotated amongst the coalition partners’ two party leaders, each serving for 18 months.
It was a government certain to attract sustained opposition not only from Labour, but further to the left, from two much emboldened parties, the Greens and the Māori Party. Taking office in December, the coalition began its term with reversals of the previous government’s policies — on electric vehicles, anti-smoking measures, Maori language initiatives and infrastructure priorities — attracting fierce criticism, with further steps scheduled for the new year. A weakening economy, emphasised in the New Zealand Treasury’s end-of-year economic forecast, highlighted challenges faced by a government committed to ‘tax relief’, pre-election promises already disrupted by internal coalition divisions.
That National’s objective of ‘strong and stable government’ would be easily achieved in the aftermath of the 2023 election and the protracted three-party negotiations that followed seems unlikely. The new government faces chronic and highly divisive economic, social and cultural issues, as well as international geostrategic challenges whose nuances and complexities both the public and policy-makers struggle to comprehend and confront.
Stephen Levine is Professor of Political Science at Victoria University of Wellington.
This article is part of an EAF special feature series on 2023 in review and the year ahead.