But the crucial factor behind his success was a peculiar alignment of the traditional balance of power in a country riddled with tribalism, regionalism and ethnic tension. Atambaev ran as a unified candidate representing northern clans which overthrew the previous president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, in last year’s April coup. The southerners’ vote was split between two other candidates — Adakhan Madumarov and Kamchybek Tashiev — who did well in their respective patrimonies, but could not challenge Atambaev’s ascendancy in the national capital and ‘wavering’ regions.
Despite some voting irregularities, Atambaev’s final result of 63 per cent appears to be an adequate reflection of his appeal to the electorate, the bulk of which follows not so much a political or ideological platform as clan affiliation and populist promises of pork-barrelling.
The president-elect’s legitimacy has been widely recognised both domestically and internationally . So while Madumarov and Tashiev have threatened to mobilise their supporters to protest against what they say was an unfair poll, large-scale instability as a result of such manoeuvring is unlikely. The country is still recovering from the traumatic events of 2010, and violence is decidedly out of fashion with ordinary Kyrgyzs, at least for the time being. It is quite probable the new regime will persuade Tashiev and Madumarov to acquiesce; the former may be offered a job as a minister, while local media are touting the latter as a candidate for a regional governorship.
Atambaev’s first few months as head of state will be characterised by the usual routine of rewarding friends, placating enemies and forming a coalition that would be acceptable to regional strongmen. The fact that two of his predecessors were ousted after they violated this delicate equilibrium will weigh heavily on his mind. Eventually, he will have to deal with Kyrgyzstan’s many problems, including ethnic tensions between Kyrgyzs and Uzbeks in the country’s south, and issues of economic development.
In theory, Atambaev is well positioned to deal with these issues. He has a reputation as a moderate when it comes to nation-building, unlike Tashiev and Madumarov who were implicated in ethnic clashes in Osh and Jalalabad in the summer of 2010. This quality is particularly important for maintaining good relations with Uzbekistan, a regional superpower and a troublesome neighbour in the past.
On the economic front, Atambaev sees closer cooperation with Russia as an instrument of revival in his country. He was involved in engineering Kyrgyzstan’s membership in the Customs Union (comprising Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia), which was announced in October 2011. But despite these ties, it would be erroneous to see Atambaev as Moscow’s client. He may have indicated that his cabinet would like to see the US airbase leave Kyrgyzstan in 2014, but this is a tried-and-tested ploy by the Kyrgyz leaders to extract more money from Washington; it has worked at least three times in the past. The truth is that Atambaev needs support from Russia, the US and Kyrgyzstan’s regional neighbours if he is to survive in a difficult domestic political environment and successfully confront Kyrgyzstan’s nation-building challenges.
Dr Kirill Nourzhanov is a Senior Lecturer at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, the Australian National University.