The CRS paper examines the prospects for Japan pursuing a nuclear weapons capability by assessing the existing technical infrastructure of its extensive civilian nuclear energy program. It explores the challenges that Japan would have to overcome to transform its current program into a military program. Presently, Japan appears to lack several of the prerequisites for a full-scale nuclear weaponsdeterrent: expertise on bomb design, reliable delivery vehicles, an intelligence program to protect and conceal assets, and sites for nuclear testing. In addition, there is a range of legal and political restraints on Japan’s development of nuclear weapons, including averse public and elite opinion, restrictive domestic laws and practices, and the negative diplomatic consequences of abandoning its traditional approach.
Any reconsideration and/or shift of Japan’s policy of nuclear abstention would have significant implications for U.S. policy in East Asia. Among the most important factors driving Japan’s strategic policy decision-making is the strength of the U.S. security guarantee.
CRS argues that globally, Japan’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would damage the world’s most durable international non-proliferation regime. Regionally, Japan ‘going nuclear’ could set off an arms race with China, South Korea, and Taiwan. India and/or Pakistan may then feel compelled to further expand or modernize their own nuclear weapons capabilities.
If Japan made the decision without U.S. support, the move would underscore a lack of trust in the U.S. commitment to defend Japan and expose a deep fracture in the US-Japan security relationship.. An erosion in the U.S.-Japan alliance could upset the geopolitical balance in East Asia, a shift that could strengthen China’s position as an emerging hegemonic power. All of these ramifications would likely be deeply destabilizing for the security of the Asia Pacific region and beyond.
Ominously, CRS concludes that the report ‘will be updated as circumstances warrant’.
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See also:
China, Japanese security and the bomb!
Japan assesses the next US presidency
Obama and Asia
What Obama means for Asia
Managing the Japan-US alliance
Keeping up with Asia
Obama and Japan’s security policies