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Japan assesses the next US presidency

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In Brief

What will a McCain or Obama Presidency mean for Japan?

Weston Konishi of the US Council of Foreign Relations and Hitachi International Affairs Fellow in Japan provides the latest interpretation, and it’s a compulsory study for Australian government strategists, however much it’s based on a convenient perception more than complicated reality.

Konishi reckons that the McCain team is dominated by advisors well disposed to Japan and the Obama team by a core of China experts despite its recruitment of Republican Gordon Flake (an old Japan and Korea hand). There are shades of Japanese thinking about the advent of the Rudd government in Australia here.

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And the contrasts he sees on policy substance? For McCain, Japan is America’s key ally in Asia; for Obama, maybe it is when push comes to shove. McCain is a free trader, but for Obama it depends on whether the foreign policy or campaign advisors get the upper hand. McCain suggests that Obama’s position of withdrawal from the Middle East threatens alliance commitments in Asia and for Obama that’s an issue. And McCain sees the importance of cooperation with Japan on climate change and thus gazumping Obama on his strong suit. The risks of an Obama Presidency are palpable.

But the strategic issue for Konishi is the McCain idea of a Concert of Democracies or League of Democracies as the supra-UN force in world affairs. This is an idea a more ‘inclusive’ version of which key members of the Obama team also seem to endorse, he suggests. His conclusion: in this strategic conception there could be opportunity for return by Japan to the ‘values-oriented’ diplomacy proposed by former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his foreign minister, Aso Taro, as a focal point of Japanese foreign policy.

This may be a stretch, given the powerful underlying forces in Japan seeking ‘to preserve distance from America’ within an alliance framework. And it is a stretch, given the powerful if uncomfortable dynamic of the Japan-China relationship from which there is only economically painful escape. And it is a static conception of political power (compare Hugh White) and moral imperatives, both of which continue to be characterised by dynamic transition and change in Asia. But realities have been known before not to dissuade political leaders from pursuit of what seems like a convenient idea.

See also:
Obama and Asia
What Obama means for Asia
Managing the Japan-US alliance
Keeping up with Asia
More on Japan, America and the bomb
China, Japanese security and the bomb!
Obama and Japan’s security policies

One response to “Japan assesses the next US presidency”

  1. The critical element missed by Mr. Konishi is that both Japan teams are close to each other, both in terms of friendships and ideas. The Obama team boasts that there is “no daylight” between them on Japan. The so-called US-Japan Alliance is the “lynchpin” of American security in the region. In essence, Japan in American foreign policy is a backwater of stagnant thinking and overpaid friends of Japan–for white men I may add.

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